One, Tua, Three: Tons Of Action On When And Where Tagovailoa Will Be Drafted

Posted on April 20, 2020 - Last Updated on October 23, 2020

If you’re willing to put money down on the under on Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft position markets, you’re in the minority. One legal online sportsbook operator says that, although it is seeing a lot of action on the former Alabama quarterback’s draft fate, it’s mostly one-sided so far.

William Hill sportsbook, which operates online in Nevada and New Jersey, has an over/under of 3.5 for Tagovailoa. To this point, the majority of the action has come in on the over. That may signal an opportunity for a contrarian play, however.

What’s going on with Tua Tagovailoa draft position markets at William Hill?

William Hill has already moved the line on Tagovailoa’s fate Thursday night one time. It doesn’t look like that line will move any further, however. The sportsbook wants to keep the line at 3.5 just in case a team that needs a quarterback trades into the top three positions.

“Tua’s draft position, we originally opened at 4.5,” said William Hill’s U.S. Director of Trading Nick Bogdanovich. “We went down to 3.5 when there was such great news about his health. But now bettors are backing the over due to all the uncertainty. Everyone’s talking about Tua. I think the majority of the betting on him will come in the next week. Before his injury, people thought he would be a superstar. Now, is he damaged goods? It just depends on what the bettors believe and who they’re listening to.”

Many mock drafts have Joe Burrow, Chase Young, and Derrick Brown going 1-2-3 on Thursday. Most consider Tagovailoa to be an early first-round talent, however, slotting him as early as fifth overall to the Miami Dolphins.

Because of that, 74% of the tickets and 65% of the total dollars wagered have Tagovailoa going fourth or later. While the Cincinnati Bengals would satisfy their need for a signal-caller with Burrow and the Detroit Lions are good at the position, Washington is in play for this situation.

As William Hill’s decision to hold the line at 3.5 alludes to, however, those mock drafts assume no teams trade up. So far, all the NFL clubs in search of a QB in this year’s class have kept their intentions pretty close to the chest.

William Hill bettors love Tagovailoa in several draft markets

William Hill likes Tagovailoa to be the second or third QB off the board, after Burrow. So do bettors in both NJ and NV, apparently. Tagovailoa is seeing a greater percentage of the dollars and the wagers than the rest of the field on these markets.

William Hill says that out of all the draft position props on an individual prospect, that market for Tagovailoa is seeing more than any other. Through last Thursday, 16% of the action for such markets fell on Tagovailoa.

That Tagovailoa market is dominating in the dollars wagered department as well. Bettors have put down an impressive 15% of the money for draft position markets on whether Tagovailoa will go in the top three picks.

The same goes for the market on the market for the third quarterback drafted. Despite Tagovailoa being a -110 co-favorite with Justin Herbert, 44% of the bets and 57% of the dollars prefer Tagovailoa.

Bettors are more split about which team will draft Tagovailoa. Most of the action is on the Los Angeles Chargers at 17%. The market shows five other teams within seven percentage points, however. The Washington Redskins are in that mix.

William Hill is confident about keeping Tagovailoa’s market at 3.5 for now. It may lengthen the odds on the under if the action on the over keeps up, however. That may be just the opportunity smart bettors need to take the under instead and hope for a surprise.

Derek Helling Avatar
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Derek Helling

Derek Helling is a lead writer for PlayUSA and the manager of BetHer. He is a 2013 graduate of the University of Iowa and covers the intersections of sports with business and the law.

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